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Looking at the development space of new energy from the perspective of renewable energy power quota

at the end of March 2018, the National Energy Administration issued the renewable energy power quota and assessment method (Exposure Draft) and the compilation instructions of renewable energy power quota and assessment method. The method and compilation instructions are designed to promote the energy production and consumption revolution and promote the construction of ecological civilization. This method undoubtedly serves as a backing to solve the problem of wind and light abandonment, At the same time, it also escorted the new energy decentralized market trading policy proposed at the end of 2017. At the same time with the methods and compilation instructions, the 2018 renewable energy power quota indicators of each provincial administrative region were published, which defined the minimum indicators of new energy power consumption in each region from whether they were non-linear and what the non-linear degree was. Through this indicator, we will discuss the impact of electrostatic generation of new energy in various regions on the electronic universal testing machine in 2018, and the exhibition space for the maintenance of the electronic universal testing machine

we do not consider the quota index of hydropower, but only the quota index of non hydropower. According to the accounting method, the proportion of renewable energy consumption in each province (region, city) to accelerate the transformation from low-end to medium and high-end is equal to the renewable energy consumption in each province (region, city) divided by the total social electricity consumption in the region

given the social electricity consumption of various regions in 2017, the minimum consumption of new energy power in 2018 can be roughly calculated

according to the situation that the combined operation of wind power and PV in 2017 is expected to reach 1/3 in 2025 published by the national energy administration and the statistics of biomass power generation, the new energy power generation in the region can be roughly calculated

geothermal energy, ocean energy (including tidal energy) and other forms of renewable energy account for a very low proportion, and the official statistical results are missing, so they are not considered in this estimation

based on the above conditions, we can estimate the power supply shortage of new energy in each region in 2018, as shown in the following table (unit: 100 million kwh):

Table 1: quota minimum new energy (non hydropower) power consumption

Table 2: new energy development space

Table 2, the energy administration has not published the detailed information of photovoltaic power generation in each region in 2017, and the data source is based on the detailed information of the first three quarters, Therefore, there is a certain deviation in the statistics of photovoltaic power generation; There is no official data on the details of biomass power generation in 2017. Temporarily, according to the statistical data of the National Energy Administration in 2016 and with reference to the growth in 2017, other new energy data accounting for a relatively small proportion except for scenery and biomass have not been counted, so the calculation results are not accurate, but it is enough to explain whether the development space of new energy industry in various regions is sufficient. Among these provinces, the provinces with positive results still need to vigorously develop new energy. The provinces with negative results indicate that the new energy reserve in the region has met the quota requirements, but it does not mean that the development prospect is poor. Trans provincial renewable energy trading and market trading are the two directions for the development of new energy in such regions

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